How Cameron can beat the clunking fist

The Financial Times' Dear Economist column is well worth a read. It's written by Tim Harford, author of The Undercover Economist (a book I've read, and not unlike Freakonomics).

A few weeks ago, the column featured the story of "J" who wants to run for student union President and is willing to put up some cash to help him in his quest.

I just wonder if David Cameron ought to take heed from the wise words of the Economist. Given the talk of an early poll, it might be his only way to win an election...

Dear Economist,

I am an economics student, and intend to run for president of the student union this year. The elections are won on the basis of whose name is seen the most around campus. Given that it is improbable I will win, I am willing to offer a pot of hundreds of pounds to people to help campaign – dependent on my winning. What is the most efficient use of this pot? Hire one person to go flat out? Or spread the money around?

Cheers
J, England

Dear J,

If you are able to fool your potential recruits into taking you seriously, you will find willing volunteers – and you may indeed win. But you seem like an obvious loser to me. If your fellow students are as dismissive of your chances as you yourself are, they will find your offer unattractive.

They will refuse to help, and you will lose. Either way, your situation – like that of many politicians – is dependent on a self-fulfilling prophecy.

You need to find some way to take advantage of your position as a hopeless outsider. I would recommend putting a decent bet on yourself to win – you should be able to find long odds. The prospective winnings would make your offer more generous, which could make all the difference.

As for how to divide the money, I recommend that you run a prize draw, winning volunteer takes all. That would make the cash payment more attractive when your campaign is sparsely supported and the incentive is most needed.

In any case, the economist John List has shown that prize draws are a great way to raise money for charity. Your campaign certainly sounds like a charity case to me.

Economist.

Source: FT.com