Barack Obama's election victory has rightly been hailed as an important step forward in US history, particularly for the Africa-American community. But I feel strongly that people are getting ahead of themselves about what the election victory will mean. Reality may frustrate our current hope.
There are a few issues I have with the excessive jubilation which has met Obama's victory:
Firstly, his election is the stuff of Hollywood movies. And like all good Hollywood movies, finer details are often overlooked. Of all those US voters I saw interviewed in the run up to election day and on the day itself, few (if any) gave solid policy-based reasons as to why they would vote for Obama. Most referred simply to 'a need for change'. It remains unclear in what ways Obama's policies will bring that change (these still need a lot of work - especially his economic policies), or if he will be able to at all.
Related to that point: a President should be judged on his actions, not his rhetoric or his skin colour. It is widely accepted that Obama's victory has been helped in part by a tough two terms under George W. Bush. But it is the current President who serves to show that mistakes in office can reflect very badly on entire political career. Obama promises change. He now has to deliver it. And supporters should recognise the inherent difficulties of putting promises into action, instead of putting the cart before the horse and assuming change has occurred simply by virtue of Obama's election victory - he has the potential to be a transformational figure, but whether or not he is remains to be seen.
Thirdly, the election of a black President does not necessarily mean that the civil rights issue is over, or even ameliorating. At the end of his (possible) eight years in office, the black community in America will need to assess whether or not Obama has improved their life chances. It is still entirely feasible that he will fail to do so. Or, indeed, that Obama proves less capable as a President than he does at the lecturn. A bad stint in office from Obama could set back the cause of civil rights campaigners further than his election as President progresses it.
Finally, Obama's election victory isn't necessarily as historic as some people suggest. It is clear the mainstream media were hoping for an Obama victory because it would make the better story, and he got a fair wind as a result. But Obama raised close to $1bn for his campaign, and outspent McCain by more than double. Obama's breaking of a commitment to accept public funding allowed him to raise significantly more than McCain, and to spend more in key states. It was therefore hardly a level playing field. Given this, and the unpopularity of the incumbent, is a Democrat win really that exceptional? Perhaps the real question is why Obama didn't do even better, given these other contextual factors.
Obama has a lot going for him - youth, intelligence, oratory, the ability to surround himself with the right people and so on. However, he has made the mistake of raising expectations too high and can now only fail to deliver.
We hope that the promised change will come. But, knowing politics, that hope is likely to be futile.
UPDATE: A friend last night reminded me of a line Tony Blair once used, reflecting on his own experience: "You campaign in poetry, and govern in prose."
There are a few issues I have with the excessive jubilation which has met Obama's victory:
Firstly, his election is the stuff of Hollywood movies. And like all good Hollywood movies, finer details are often overlooked. Of all those US voters I saw interviewed in the run up to election day and on the day itself, few (if any) gave solid policy-based reasons as to why they would vote for Obama. Most referred simply to 'a need for change'. It remains unclear in what ways Obama's policies will bring that change (these still need a lot of work - especially his economic policies), or if he will be able to at all.
Related to that point: a President should be judged on his actions, not his rhetoric or his skin colour. It is widely accepted that Obama's victory has been helped in part by a tough two terms under George W. Bush. But it is the current President who serves to show that mistakes in office can reflect very badly on entire political career. Obama promises change. He now has to deliver it. And supporters should recognise the inherent difficulties of putting promises into action, instead of putting the cart before the horse and assuming change has occurred simply by virtue of Obama's election victory - he has the potential to be a transformational figure, but whether or not he is remains to be seen.
Thirdly, the election of a black President does not necessarily mean that the civil rights issue is over, or even ameliorating. At the end of his (possible) eight years in office, the black community in America will need to assess whether or not Obama has improved their life chances. It is still entirely feasible that he will fail to do so. Or, indeed, that Obama proves less capable as a President than he does at the lecturn. A bad stint in office from Obama could set back the cause of civil rights campaigners further than his election as President progresses it.
Finally, Obama's election victory isn't necessarily as historic as some people suggest. It is clear the mainstream media were hoping for an Obama victory because it would make the better story, and he got a fair wind as a result. But Obama raised close to $1bn for his campaign, and outspent McCain by more than double. Obama's breaking of a commitment to accept public funding allowed him to raise significantly more than McCain, and to spend more in key states. It was therefore hardly a level playing field. Given this, and the unpopularity of the incumbent, is a Democrat win really that exceptional? Perhaps the real question is why Obama didn't do even better, given these other contextual factors.
Obama has a lot going for him - youth, intelligence, oratory, the ability to surround himself with the right people and so on. However, he has made the mistake of raising expectations too high and can now only fail to deliver.
We hope that the promised change will come. But, knowing politics, that hope is likely to be futile.
UPDATE: A friend last night reminded me of a line Tony Blair once used, reflecting on his own experience: "You campaign in poetry, and govern in prose."
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